Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.072742 1.128237 1.185545 1.249259 1.318251 1.390850 1.473215
2025-12-28 0.994564 1.074506 1.160491 1.260310 1.373583 1.498825 1.648740
2026-01-04 0.932001 1.025024 1.127850 1.250819 1.395050 1.560341 1.766283
2026-01-11 0.896487 1.000566 1.118260 1.262597 1.436791 1.642834 1.909020
2026-01-18 0.862160 0.973930 1.102718 1.264030 1.463508 1.706032 2.029593
2026-01-25 0.843820 0.964119 1.105231 1.285605 1.514022 1.799419 2.192810
2026-02-01 0.805529 0.928005 1.073554 1.262414 1.505868 1.816426 2.255445
2026-02-08 0.766442 0.888975 1.036161 1.229539 1.482566 1.811067 2.285662
2026-02-15 0.741350 0.865955 1.017316 1.218808 1.486669 1.841077 2.365401
2026-02-22 0.723505 0.851060 1.007753 1.219120 1.504686 1.889962 2.474277
2026-03-01 0.699164 0.826991 0.985414 1.201383 1.496980 1.902167 2.529390
2026-03-08 0.670801 0.796846 0.954140 1.170343 1.469301 1.884281 2.537305
2026-03-15 0.652266 0.779357 0.939451 1.162008 1.474135 1.915076 2.625257
2026-03-22 0.642202 0.772480 0.938374 1.172043 1.505229 1.985825 2.781835
2026-03-29 0.625586 0.756415 0.924425 1.163530 1.508978 2.015662 2.874236
2026-04-05 0.617335 0.750995 0.924350 1.174094 1.540617 2.089162 3.045010
2026-04-12 0.606178 0.741292 0.918036 1.175380 1.558284 2.141686 3.184205
2026-04-19 0.602166 0.740940 0.924317 1.194717 1.603752 2.240679 3.414891
2026-04-26 0.584371 0.721436 0.903547 1.173930 1.586661 2.237125 3.457474
2026-05-03 0.564436 0.698541 0.877445 1.144430 1.554745 2.207295 3.447972
2026-05-10 0.552139 0.685781 0.865127 1.134791 1.553389 2.228141 3.536925
2026-05-17 0.543715 0.678101 0.859677 1.135072 1.567557 2.275786 3.682476
2026-05-24 0.530409 0.663352 0.843809 1.119130 1.554957 2.276490 3.733598